IATA Warns SAF Production Will Cover Just 0.8% Of Aviation Fuel Use In 2026

Global SAF production is expected to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, equal to only 0.8% of aviation fuel use.
Airlines are expected to face $4.3 billion in SAF-related costs as supply remains limited and prices stay high.
EU and UK e-SAF mandates require about 0.6 million tonnes by 2030, but current operating and under-construction capacity is only 0.02 million tonnes.

SAF Supply Falls Short Of Net-Zero Pathway

Global sustainable aviation fuel production remains far below the level needed to put aviation on a credible net-zero pathway, according to new estimates from the International Air Transport Association.

IATA expects SAF production to reach around 2.4 million tonnes in 2026. That would represent just 0.8% of total aviation fuel use. The limited supply is expected to cost airlines $4.3 billion, adding pressure to an industry already managing high energy costs, fleet constraints, and tightening climate expectations.

The numbers expose a widening gap between aviation’s 2050 net-zero target and the policy and investment conditions needed to deliver it. SAF is expected to provide the largest share of emissions reductions for long-haul aviation. Yet production remains too small, too expensive, and too fragmented to serve global airline demand.

“It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production. Five years after committing to achieve net zero by 2050, SAF production will only account for 0.8% of airline fuel use this year. The path to meeting 65% of our needs in 2050 is growing more difficult with each year of ineffectively sequenced government policies and oil companies’ manifest lack of interest. The current energy shock should add even more urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF. But we have yet to see either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency to mitigate climate change materialize in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

IATA Calls For Policy Sequencing Before Mandates

IATA is pressing governments to focus first on production capacity, renewable energy availability, and investment certainty before imposing demand-side mandates.

Its priorities include expanding renewable energy supply, ensuring open access to fuel infrastructure, and strengthening policy support through production incentives and bankable investment frameworks. The group also wants a global SAF market supported by harmonized standards and a book-and-claim system.

That approach would allow airlines and fuel producers to transact across borders, even when physical fuel supply is not available in every market. It would also reduce the risk of fragmented national rules creating uneven costs for airlines.

For executives and investors, the policy sequencing question is now central. Mandates can create demand, but they do not automatically create investable supply. Without incentives, feedstock access, infrastructure, and stable offtake models, SAF risks becoming a compliance cost rather than a scalable decarbonization solution.

E-SAF Targets Face A Capacity Gap

IATA also raised concern over electro-SAF, or e-SAF, which is produced through power-to-liquid processes using renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water, and carbon dioxide.

Unlike biofuel-based SAF, e-SAF does not depend on biomass or waste oils. That gives it long-term potential. It also makes it highly exposed to renewable power prices, hydrogen availability, and industrial infrastructure buildout.

The EU and UK have mandated e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030. Yet global capacity currently operating and under construction stands at about 0.02 million tonnes. IATA said only one production site is operating today. Around 20 commercial-scale refineries would be needed to meet the mandated volume.

No new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities were made over the past year, adding to concerns over the pace of delivery.

“The 2030 e-SAF targets by the UK and the EU are beyond unrealistic – they are utterly detached from reality. It is a reckless energy market creation strategy to impose mandates before production is enabled. Such a strategy will only drive up the price. Coupled with penalties, it diverts scarce resources from being allocated to actual CO2 emissions reductions. The strategy is also bewildering given that Europe has the highest renewable energy prices in the world. A serious strategy would first scale renewable energy production to drive its price down and build the e-SAF production capacity on sound economics. Only at that point can mandates achieve the desired results,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist

Passengers Back Real Decarbonization

Despite the supply gap, IATA’s April 2026 passenger survey shows broad public support for aviation decarbonization.

Nearly 89% of passengers believe the industry should continue reducing emissions, even if governments reduce their climate efforts. A similar share sees flying as essential and believes it should be made sustainable, rather than restricted.

That support is also affecting spending expectations. About 66% of passengers said they are willing to pay more to compensate for emissions. Nearly 88% expect ticket prices to rise because of sustainability investments.

Passengers also favor practical emissions cuts over taxation. Around 25% want funds directed to SAF, while 23% prefer emissions-reduction technologies. Only 10% prioritize taxes.

Sustainability is already influencing travel choices. Nearly half of passengers consider carbon emissions when choosing flights. Among those passengers, more than 85% say emissions data affects their decisions. Around three-quarters also prefer airlines with stronger environmental performance.

What Executives Should Watch

The aviation sector is entering a more difficult phase of climate execution. Passenger support is strong, and airline commitments remain public. Yet fuel production is not scaling at the speed required.

For boards, investors, and policymakers, the central issue is market design. SAF will not reach commercial scale through targets alone. It needs renewable energy, infrastructure access, production incentives, harmonized rules, and long-term demand certainty.

The stakes are global. Aviation connects trade, tourism, and supply chains across borders. If SAF and e-SAF remain scarce, decarbonization costs will rise and climate targets will become harder to defend. The next phase will test whether governments can move from ambition to industrial delivery.